Volatility Trading Myths!

The VIX volatility index is supposed to be a proxy for volatility. However, when it comes to the VIX, nothing trades quite like you think it should. 

Don’t Believe All the So-Called VIX Experts. According to an article by Adam Warner in Investor’s Place - "Ten years ago, most people hadn’t even heard of the CBOE Volatility Index, or VIX. These days, the “fear index” is covered by the mainstream financial media, and you can’t throw a stick without hitting someone who fancies themselves a VIX expert."

The problem is that half of these people don’t have any clue what they’re talking about. So there is a lot of misinformation out there surrounding the VIX and VIX trading products, including futures and ETNs. When it comes to trading the VIX, nothing moves quite like you think it should.

To clear things up a bit, here are eight VIX trading myths you don’t want to fall for.

VIX Myth #1 – You Can Buy and Sell the VIX

Reality: You cannot buy and sell the actual VIX. You can buy and sell VIX futures, but that is a very different thing. VIX futures can trade at premiums or discounts to the VIX. In fact, they almost always trade at premiums to the VIX.

VIX Myth #2 – You Can Own the VIX Via Futures

Reality: VIX futures cash out when they expire based on a VIX settlement price. So unless you roll out, your position will vanish.

VIX Myth #3 – A Rolled Position Will Track VIX Moves

Reality: VIX futures price based on where the market expects to see the VIX on a given date in the future, i.e, the day the VIX expires. That estimate may or may not move on a given day with a move in the VIX. The further out in time the future is, the less it will track VIX moves.

VIX Myth #4 – VXX Tracks the VIX Better Than Futures

Reality: The iPath S&P 500 VIX Short-Term Futures ETN (NYSE:VXX) is an exchange-traded note that is based on a hypothetical rolling 30-day VIX future and trades like a regular stock. However, it does not track VIX moves particularly well. In fact, it underperforms over time so long as VIX futures trade in an upwardly sloped term structure. And VIX futures virtually always trade that way.

VIX Myth #5 – You Can Chart VXX Like a Stock

Reality: Since VXX trades like a stock, you may think you can chart it like a stock. Wrong. Run, don’t walk, from anyone who tells you about a key chart point on VXX. The VIX is a statistic, and VIX futures trade based on estimates on a forward price for that statistic. VXX creates a hypothetical constant duration 30-day VIX future and, therefore, loses money each day simply rolling from the nearest month future to the next month out if the next month out trades at a premium. Hence VXX is really just a number relative to itself the day before. It’s the tail of a tail of a tail of a dog.

VIX Myth #6 – Holding VXX Can Protect a Portfolio

Reality: VXX works fine as a short-term trading vehicle. On a day-to-day basis, it will track about 50% of the VIX move. However, it is terrible as a portfolio hedge for the reasons listed before, namely that it loses money over time in an upward sloping VIX term structure. Owning and rolling two- to three-month VIX futures works better.

VIX Myth #7 – VXZ is a Good Portfolio Hedge

Reality: The iPath S&P 500 VIX Mid-Term Futures ETN (NYSE:VXZ) is similar to VXX, but it tracks four- to seven-month VIX futures instead of 30-day VIX futures. VXZ has done relatively well since its inception and has outperformed VXX by a wide margin. But while it doesn’t have the contango trouble of VXX, the VIX curve gets pretty flat out that far. I would also caution that VXX and VXZ only listed in January 2009, and thus, neither has had to show its mettle through a VIX storm. Four- to seven-month VIX futures almost always hold their premium to the VIX, but would move to a significant discount in a serious VIX explosion. In 2008, they lagged by 20-30 points. So I suspect VXZ would not provide great protection when you wanted it most. It’s a fine volatility proxy in a quiet market, but if the goal is insurance, it may disappoint.

VIX Myth #8 – High VIX, VIX Call Buying is a Signal to Get Out or Get Short

Reality: I don’t agree with the above, but I can’t actually prove it wrong. I will say this though, the VIX is a mean-reverting statistic. A high VIX and excessive VIX call buying (and actual SPX put buying) represent extreme nervousness and/or bearish sentiment. In theory, that’s a time you want to buy, not sell. But take that with a grain of salt, because trends do take on a life of their own, like the VIX explosion and market implosion of 2008.

If you really want to trade volatility you’ve got  to trade VIX products. Email me for details.

Who Really Owns your Website and Email?

Here's and interesting piece written by Steve Coipa. I hope it helps, many persons like me, dispel the myths we hold about websites and emails.

Why I Advice Clients to Switch to Google’s Web and Email Hosting Services. By Steve Coipa

Having a basic information disseminating presence on the Internet through a website and using email for communications has now become an integral part of business life.

In spite of this however, many company executives are still stuck in the “its my Website” illusion. I’m often asked why I chose to host my own firms website and emails with Google and not with some web-hosting and email service.

Yes. I do advise all my clients to establish their websites and emails through Google. No. I don’t own any shares in Google.

Before offering my reasons, let me admit that my do clients ask me "Why Google" as if it’s somehow inferior to hosting with some bucket shop of a web and email hosting service.

First, let’s deal with just three popular myths that many otherwise smart corporate ‘C’ level executives have about websites, emails and hosting services.

Myth Number One: When they register a website they believe that they are the exclusive owners of it.

The Reality: You only get the exclusive right to use the name of the website for as long as your registration fees remains valid. If you don’t believe me try not renewing your registration.

Myth Number Two: My local hosting service will provide me with quality service and several emails with a soandsoat mywebsitenamedotcom and this sounds great because everyone will know that I own the website and the associated emails.

The Reality: Most local web-hosting services are small under capitalized outfits that operate from bandwidth leased from the big local telecos – and don’t we all know the quality of service these telecos provide.

The emails provided to you by the hosting company are usually tied in to their web-hosting service – which means that if you terminate the service and move hosting elsewhere you can kiss your emails goodby. Of course you can purchase your own email server but you’ll still have to host it somewhere and link it to your website. Moving that will be a nightmare requiring a host of experts.

As for people thinking your email sounds great and genuine – well it’s only those ignorant of the reality. After reading this article there may be fewer left in this world.

Myth Number Three: Downtime, Phishing, hacking and similar frauds and problems cannot easily be perpetuated on my own websites and email because my hosting service tells me that they have the latest software tools.

The Reality: None of your local or even international hosting services can come anywhere near the huge investments constantly made by companies like Google in integrity-of-service and protective hardware and software. If you really expect under capitalized web and email hosting services, that have to survive on your monthly hosting service payments, to invest more than Google in the latest hardware and software, you’ve really got to be kidding. No way.

Thnik I'm shhting mumouth off. Well read what  the experts at Info Security Magazine have to say.

Now let’s see what I can get by hosting my website and emails with Google Business.

Users: More than 2,000,000 businesses worldwide currently use Google with more and more coming on board daily.

Cost Saving: Google's web-based applications require no hardware or software – a big saving in your own IT staff (sorry guys).

No Downtime: Google guarantees 99.9% up-time reliability. I know this to be true as far as my own and my clients’ websites and emails are concerned.

Storage: Fifty times more storage than the industry average i.e. 25GB of email storage per employee. Check out what your so called host is offering you and how much it costs.

Best Security: When Google, with a market cap of more than US$149.89 Billion, says its network is designed from the ground up with security in mind, I tend to believe it compared to what some under capitalized outfit says.

Problem Free: While nothing man made is ever impenetrable, Phishing, hacking and similar frauds are very much more difficult to perpetuate and sustain on websites or emails hosted with Google compared to others.

Fictitious emails can of course be set up with all services but Google is particularly vigilant and responsive to complaints and does take action – unlike most other hosting services who sell or lease their email database i.e. your email to supplement their revenues.

Google has enough revenue from other legitimate business lines. They don’t need to sell your emails. If you don’t believe me check your span emails over a week and count the number of spam mail coming from @gmail.com compared to others. I’ve actually done it so I know.

How to Market Luxury Brands to New Millionaires! By Steve Coipa

“Marketing luxury brands to the rich is complex enough. But it could be a real challenge marketing to the new rich?”

It’s official. The luxury industry is back after a short rest. According to an article in Forbes referring to the global consulting firm, Bain & Company's 2012 Luxury Market Update, the luxury goods industry is poised for full recovery in 2011. The report is authored by Claudia D'Arpizio, a partner based in the firm's Milan office.

The study covered some 220 luxury brands, which includes leather goods, fashion, jewelry, alcohol and cosmetics companies that serve high net worth customers, or those with assets of US$1 million or above and concluded that spending on luxury is expected to pick up to around $230 billion per annum by 2012. New millionaire from countries like China, India etc. will be leading the charge.

Rules of the game: While some golden rules of marketing remain, there are a few new ones that need to be recognized. The new rich seem to believe in the maxim - “If you’ve got it, you’ve got to be able to show it...or else you ain’t really got it”

There are those who think that, because of the current poor economy, the wealthy now want to be understated and subtle about their wealth. Well, as far as the new rich are concerned this idea is completely wrong.

Why Luxury Brands?: The rich patronize luxury brands for a variety of reasons. Although most would just prefer to say they buy for the quality of the product, the real reasons are more at the subconscious level – like peer recognition and approval, status, the admiration (envy) of the not so rich i.e. the aspiring rich etc.

Luxury Brands Marketing: Luxury goods brands deploy a wide variety of techniques to keep their brands within the mindset of their customers... both current and in particular future customers. While public relations and advertising in selected media has been the mainstay, savvy marketers have also used event sponsorship for decades... but mostly in name only.

However, in the last few years, a down economy has forced many luxury goods marketers to become more creative in reaching their target audiences.

Historically, marketers of luxury brands such as liquor, fragrances, timepieces, fashion and cosmetics have consistently pursued a luxury pricing strategy in order to maintain an impression of exclusivity. That strategy meant limiting the availability of products, price mar-ups etc. The thinking was, that their brands had to be guarded against brand devaluation.

But with luxury brands facing stiffer competition from new entrants and in an economy that’s presenting additional challenges, the risk of becoming irrelevant or God forbid! Being considered ordinary is very real, Luxury brands are now reinventing themselves to a whole new generation of potential customers. They are moving above advertising, that’s available to all with a budget, to considering unique, limited availability sponsorship of events and activities that are easily identified with the rich and famous, for differentiating their products.

Building Brand Image through Sponsorship: It takes a lot to build and a lot more to maintain a brand’s upscale image active in the minds of customers. And this is vital to the success of any luxury brand. There is no better and more cost effective way to build and secure that image than by regularly aligning with luxury events organized by equally luxury oriented organizations.

Take for example Richman’s International Millionaire Clubs. Its Charter Corporate Platinum Memberships is limited to just 100 globally, and is reportedly the world’s most expensive private club memberships. This particular class of exclusive membership offers much more that just one club membership with worldwide benefits not offered by any other club in the world. These memberships offer its holders exclusive rights to thirty years of corporate sponsorship rights to horse racing and other international millionaire events, at no additional cost - a value probably far in excess of the cost of membership. Of course the club probably has other classes of members who don’t necessarily enjoy these free sponsorship rights.

Luxury brands could sponsor both international and country specific events like the Richman’s Inter-World Horse Racing, Polo, Motor Racing, Golf etc. Challenges. In addition to on site attendance, these events indirectly reach a huge world wide audience of both the rich and rich wannbes through extensive television and Internet coverage of the event - thus prividing sponsors with media coverage at no extra cost. It would cost a substantial fortune to purchase this amount of media coverage through advertisements.

The point is that apart from just media coverage, sponsorship is a unique platform that has exclusive, specific and strong traits and personalities in identifying with and influencing both directly and subliminally with the wealthy and the rich wannabes. Selecting events with qualities most similar to a brand provides a very powerful vehicle for drawing attention to, and sustaining the image of the brand. Additionally, the lifestyles of these events’ patrons – i.e. expensive, exclusive with limited access etc. will greatly reinforce related qualities of the luxury brand over time.

Innovative Brand Building Relationships: Luxury brands must seek to stand out among their competitors. Therefore, the atmosphere in which luxury brands engage their most committed customers must match the exclusivity of the brand and the lifestyle it seeks to represent. Properly planned and activated hospitality programs leave a more lasting impact on the biggest customers than image-laden ads in high-gloss limited-distribution lifestyle magazines - a medium that lifestyle brands have traditionally leaned on for years. In using lifestyle magazines, it’s probably more cost effective to pitch them on co-sponsoring events or subsidizing hospitality programs rather than straight advertising in them.

The New Rich. Are they different?: Old money is just that – it’s OLD. It has it’s established habits and favored brands. It’s entrenched and less concerned with peer pressure or living up to the Joneses. Sad but true...Old money is a dieing breed and worst of all it’s buying less and less. “To survive and grow, luxury brands need to market to the new rich.”

Unfortunately the very people who are responsible for marketing and maintaining the image of many established luxury brands have grown old with their brands. Old – but not necessarily in biological age terms... but in philosophical and mind set terms. What worked well before may not work as well anymore...and the lean and hungry competition is just around the corner

In general, luxury brand purchasers are accustomed to being pampered, but they are also used to having access to the hottest parties, entertainment events and sports venues. Their experience threshold is much higher than the average fan. The new rich want all of this and more...and on more terms relevant to them.

For instance, a great view from a luxury hotel suite would be a truly memorable experience for most. For many consumers of luxury brands, it's an average experience. But for the new rich it’s more. They want the whole world to know that they can afford to stay at the luxury suite. The view is an added bonus.

Event Sponsorship provides a unique, non competitive, really exclusive platform for bringing truly memorable experiences to the new luxury consumer... and in a way he or she wants it. Perhaps the experience needs to be a bit over-the-top and maybe the average investment per invitee is going to be higher than the usual customer entertainment event but when you’re selling luxury to the new rich, coddling the customer just that much more is well worth the investment.

For more information on Luxury Brand sponsorship opportunities at Richman’s IMC organized events, please contact the author.